What's trending
Emissions fall, opportunity rises
Northland’s annual greenhouse gas emissions fell 5.8% to 3,255,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (a standard measure of all greenhouse gases) from 2024 to 2025. Of the region's emissions, 2,880,000 tonnes came from industry and 375,000 tonnes from households.
The opportunity for households
Household emissions come largely from the energy we use every day, including transport, water heating, and heating and cooling our homes. Electrifying households can:
- reduce emissions
- deliver significant savings on energy bills
- improve resilience to power outages and fuel supply disruptions.
A fully electric household in Northland with solar panels and battery storage can save up to $7,100 per year on energy costs. Even after accounting for the upfront costs of electric vehicles, solar and battery systems, and loan repayments, households can still save an average of $2,650 annually (Figure 1)[1].
Homes with solar and battery storage are also better equipped to maintain power during outages, particularly during severe weather events.
[1] Rewiring Aotearoa (2026). Electrifying Northland.
Comparison of annual household energy costs in Northland, showing that switching to a fully electric home with an electric vehicle, solar panels and battery storage can reduce energy bills by up to $7,100 a year, with average annual savings of $2,650 after upfront costs and loan repayments.
The opportunity for industry
Moving to an innovation-driven, low-emissions economy could:
- increase New Zealand’s GDP by $22 billion per year by 2035 and more than $33 billion per year by 2050
- reduce national emissions by 6% per year by 2035 and 22% per year by 2050[2].
Northland's significant renewable energy potential presents opportunities to attract investment, develop new industries, create jobs, and build regional capability.
A warming climate may create new opportunities. Changes in growing conditions could enable:
- new crops
- access to emerging markets
- greater land-use diversification.
However, it could also increase some risks, such as enabling new agricultural pests to establish and bringing more frequent severe weather that can disrupt supply chains and infrastructure.
Potential impacts for Northland businesses
Northland is particularly exposed to changing emissions pricing, trade settings, and market expectations as the global economy decarbonises. For every $1million of GDP produced, Northland generates nearly twice the greenhouse gas emissions as the national average (Figure 2). Most of Northland's industrial emissions come from agriculture, followed by manufacturing.
[2] Sustainable Business Council (2026). Driving sustainable growth: Opportunities for New Zealand’s economy
Comparison of industrial greenhouse gas emissions per $1 million of GDP, showing that Northland’s emissions intensity is nearly twice the New Zealand average, largely due to emissions from agriculture and manufacturing.
As international markets seek lower-emissions products, failing to prepare for these shifts could create risks for Northland businesses. For example, China, one of New Zealand's largest trading partners, has ambitious decarbonisation goals.
At the same time, the New Zealand Government and industry are investing heavily in technologies to reduce agricultural emissions. The challenge is increasingly likely to be the pace of adoption rather than the availability of solutions.
Agriculture and tourism, Northland's two largest industries, depend heavily on a healthy natural environment. Protecting and restoring natural systems, incorporating climate risks into business planning, and investing in natural infrastructure can strengthen resilience and support long-term economic performance. Like any other critical asset, natural infrastructure should be considered an essential business investment.
Several industries, including agriculture, tourism, energy and construction, have developed sector-level scenario analyses exploring how climate change may affect their future operating environment.
What's changed
Not enough jobs, or not enough skilled workers?
Monthly average employment in Northland was down 2% in the year ended June 2026 compared to the previous year, with an average of 72,300 Northlanders in paid employment (i.e. receiving wages or salaries) each month (Figure 3).
All North Island regions, except for Waikato, experienced a drop in this measure of employment. This contrasts with the South Island, which experienced a 1% increase in wage and salary earners in the year ended June 2026. Changes in employment illustrate the two island story of economic growth in New Zealand over the past year, with the South Island experiencing earlier and quicker recovery than the North Island.
In the year ended June 2026, wage and salary employment fell in Northland and across the North Island, while the South Island recorded growth.
Employment peaks and troughs in Northland
Since the early 2020s there have been two distinct periods of employment growth across New Zealand, with Northland illustrating these trends stronger than most regions:
- A large increase in employment occurred between 2020 and 2023, with the number of wage and salary earners in Northland rising by 9% (6,300 people).
- Since 2023, employment growth has fallen sharply in all regions and even turned negative in almost half. Northland, along with Gisborne, Wellington and Nelson, recorded a drop of 3% or more.
- There are around 1,900 fewer wage and salary earners in Northland in the year ended June 2026 than in 2023.
Who has been affected?
Over the past three years, the number of men earning wages and salaries in Northland has fallen by almost 5%, while the number of women has fallen by 2% (Figure 4).
Since June 2023, wage and salary employment has fallen most sharply among 15-34 year olds, while men have experienced a larger decline than women and employment among those aged over 55 has increased.
The drop in employment has impacted on younger people to a much greater extent:
- The number of people employed in Northland aged between 15-34 years old has fallen by 10%.
- There are 2,600 fewer people aged between 15-34 years old working in Northland in 2026 than in 2023.
- In contrast, the number of people working in Northland who are aged over 55 years old has increased over the past three years.
Employers may be operating “a last in, first out policy”, holding on to more experienced staff. Younger people are more likely to have been impacted by the fall in economic activity in certain sectors such as construction, accommodation, and food service. And the data suggests that older people are more likely to stay working past the age of superannuation.
Do we have the skills employers need?
Although the number of people employed has fallen, the number of online job advertisements in Northland has remained steady and is about the same as it was before COVID-19 (Figure 5).
Surprisingly, advertisements for jobs in Northland are at a relatively higher level than across New Zealand as a whole. Furthermore, advertisements for skilled workers in Northland appear to be stronger than for unskilled workers.
Northland online job vacancies have eased from their 2022 peak, but remain above March 2020 levels, while the national index has fallen below its pre-covid baseline.
All this suggests a mismatch between the skills and experience employers in Northland need and those offered by the unemployed in the region. This is not new, but the current fall in employment is highlighting the issue.
Efforts to provide vocational training in the region and to support the transition into the workforce remain more vital now than ever.
What's new
Northland tourism: a changing visitor market
Tourism remains an important part of Northland’s economy, supporting businesses and employment across the region.
But the latest data presents a mixed picture:
- guest nights have softened, with Northland’s share of national guest nights continuing to decline
- international visitor spending is up 6%, continuing to recover
- domestic visitor spending – which makes up most of Northland’s visitor market – has declined by 15%.
In the year ended June 2026, visitor expenditure in Northland was estimated at $805 million, down around 10% from the previous year. Nationally, domestic expenditure was broadly unchanged and international expenditure increased 14%.
Northland is not alone in experiencing softer domestic tourism, but it stands out for the scale of the decline. Its 15% fall was the largest of any region, more than twice the 7% decline recorded in Nelson, the next largest. Compared with the year ended June 2024, Northland’s domestic visitor expenditure was 31% lower, while nationally it was 1% higher.
Visitor activity has softened
Guest-night data provides a longer-term view of visitor activity. Northland has recorded a decline in guest nights across three districts in the latest year, while national guest nights increased.
Guest nights fell across all three Northland districts in the latest year, while national guest nights increased, reducing Northland’s share to 4.1%.
Northland’s share of New Zealand guest nights has also reduced. During Covid-19 and the border restrictions that persisted, domestic travel played a much greater role in tourism nationally. As travel patterns have normalised, Northland’s share of national guest nights has fallen from 4.7%in 2023 to 4.1% in 2026.
Domestic tourism matters in Northland
Northland relies more on domestic tourism than New Zealand does overall. This provided some resilience while international travel was restricted during Covid-19, but the current picture is different: international tourism has recovered and domestic visitor expenditure has weakened.
In the year to June 2026:
- domestic visitors spent about $582 million in Northland
- international visitors spent about $223 million
- domestic tourism accounted for around 72% of Northland’s visitor expenditure, compared with 63% nationally.
Greater reliance on domestic tourism does not, however, explain the scale of the decline. Domestic expenditure nationally was broadly unchanged, while declines in other regions were considerably smaller. At 15%, Northland’s decline was the largest (Figure 7).
Domestic visitor expenditure fell 15% in Northland in the year ended June 2026, more than twice the decline recorded in any other region.
Northland’s domestic market is also concentrated close to home:
- About 47% of domestic visitor expenditure came from Northland residents travelling within the region*.
- About 34% came from Auckland.
Together, these markets accounted for approximately 80% of domestic expenditure (Figure 8).
In the year ended June 2026, Northland and Auckland accounted for around 80% of domestic visitor expenditure, with spending from both markets declining.
Both markets weakened over the latest year, with Northland resident spending falling from around $329 million to $271 million and Auckland visitor spending from $224 million to $196 million.
* Note: Under the Monthly Regional Tourism Estimates methodology, domestic tourism expenditure is recorded when people travel more than 40 kilometres from their usual place of residence. For Northland, this reflects travel within what is a large and geographically dispersed region, rather than everyday spending close to home.
International tourism continues to recover
Spending by international visitors provides a more positive picture, reaching $223 million – up 6% over the latest year and 28% compared with the year ended June 2024. However, Northland’s growth remained below the 14% increase recorded nationally.
The recovery has varied between markets (Figure 9):
- The United States was a standout, with estimated expenditure increasing from around $65 million to $78 million, a year-on-year increase of around 20%.
- Australia remained a significant market at around $43 million but was broadly unchanged.
- Spending from the United Kingdom and several European and Asian markets declined.
In the year ended June 2026, increased spending by US visitors made the largest contribution to Northland’s international expenditure growth, offsetting declines across several European and Asian markets.
Northland’s international tourism market operates within a changing national aviation network (Figure 10). Auckland remains New Zealand’s largest international gateway with over 2 million arrivals last year and growth of about 4.8%, but direct international connections elsewhere have expanded. Hamilton and Dunedin regained direct services to Australia in 2025, while international arrivals through Queenstown and Christchurch grew more strongly than Auckland (14.8% and 21.4%, respectively).
International visitor expenditure in Northland increased 6% in the year ended June 2026, while arrivals grew more strongly through several gateways outside of Auckland – the primary international gateway for visitors travelling north.
For Northland, this creates both competition and opportunity. International visitors have more options to enter New Zealand closer to destinations elsewhere in the country. At the same time, the large number of visitors continuing to arrive through Auckland represents an important market immediately to Northland’s south.
Looking ahead
There is unlikely to be a single explanation for Northland’s recent domestic tourism performance. Its visitor economy is more domestically focused than New Zealand overall, concentrated heavily in Northland and Auckland, and strongly associated with leisure, coastal and outdoor experiences.
The latest data nevertheless highlights where the challenges and opportunities lie:
- Rebuilding domestic visitation remains important, particularly from Auckland and within Northland itself. However, this may be difficult while households continue to face pressure from higher living and transport costs – as a predominantly drive-based domestic destination, Northland is particularly exposed to higher prices at the pump, which increases the cost of both travelling to and around the region.
- Continued international recovery provides an opportunity to diversify Northland’s visitor base and convert more international arrivals through Auckland into trips north. The opening of the New Zealand International Convention Centre in Auckland in early 2026 may provide and additional opportunity, bringing more international delegates into a gateway immediately to Northland’s south.
- Increasing length of stay, regional dispersal, off-peak visitation and visitor expenditure may ultimately matter as much as increasing visitor numbers. Northland’s cultural and historical experiences, coast and marine environment, walking and cycling, food and beverage, nature-based activities and events all provide opportunities to encourage visitors to travel further, stay longer and visit across more of the year.
What's coming up
Is a lift on the way for Northland’s construction sector?
Following three years of decline, the number of new residential consents issued in Northland in the year ended June 2026 rose 6% to 799 (Figure 11).
But there’s still a long way to go:
- Residential consent figures remain 45% lower than the record number of 1437 issued in the year ended June 2022.
- Figures remain 10% below the average annual of 876 issued during the 2010s.
- Northland is behind the national average, with new residential building consents rising 19% across the country in 2026.
New dwelling consents increased in the year ended June 2026, reversing some of the decline recorded since the 2022 peak.
Changes in the type of residential consents
The type of consents issued has changed over time:
- Before the 2020s, around 90% were for houses, with the remainder being apartments, townhouses or units (including retirement village units).
- By 2025 and 2026 consents for houses had dropped to 75%.
There’s a similar trend across the country.
All three Northland districts saw a rise in new residential building consents (Figure 12):
- Kaipara had the largest increase (19%). However, the number of residential consents issued there in the year ended June 2026 was only 75% of the average annual number issued in the 2010s.
- In the Far North, residential consents rose by a more modest 9%, but the number of consents issued in 2026 was 13% higher than the 2010s annual average.
All three districts recorded annual growth, although consent levels remain uneven when compared with their 2010s annual averages.
Non-residential consents are up too
The value of non-residential consents issued for both new buildings and alterations across Northland in the year ended June 2026 totalled $214 million, up 3% from a year earlier.
Non-residential consents declined steadily in the decade before 2016, reaching a low of $63 million (Figure 13). Since 2016, they have increased dramatically. The value of non-residential consents issued in 2026 was more than double that issued in the mid-2000s. This aligns with growth across New Zealand as a whole.
The value of non-residential consents has increased substantially since 2016, with public-sector services a major contributor to growth.
Investment by central government in public sector services such as education and health buildings has been the main driver for this increase, particularly since the start of this decade. This is likely to continue given the 2026 budget announcement of $682 million to construct a new acute services building and 158-bed ward tower at Whangārei Hospital.
There has also been a strong increase in the value of building consents associated with private sector services such as office buildings, retail shops and storage facilities.
What it means for Northland
The rise in residential building consents and the steady value of non-residential consents bodes well for the construction sector. It plays an important role in the local labour market, requiring a wide range of occupations and skills, and businesses of various sizes. A steady stream of building activity allows construction businesses to retain skilled staff and avoids cashflow difficulties that cause ripple effects through local communities.
Disclaimer: This e-newsletter provides general information on the Northland economy and the views expressed are those of the authors. It is not intended for any course of action nor as a substitute for financial advice.
