Future impacts
What impacts will climate change have in Northland?
Climate change will increasingly disrupt Northland’s water, land, ecosystems, people and economy.
In 2026, we commissioned a report from Earth Sciences New Zealand on how climate change may affect Northland by 2050 and 2090. The report considers two scenarios:
- what climate change could look like if there is moderate global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
- what climate change could look like if there is little global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The potential impacts Earth Sciences New Zealand identified are:
- an increase in annual average temperature of between 1.1°C and 1.3°C by 2050, and between 1.3°C and 2.9°C by 2090
- hot days (over 25°C) are expected to double by 2050, and heat waves will last longer and happen more often
- Northland is expected to get less rain overall, but when rain does come it will be more intense and come at different times of year. Spring and winter may get drier, and summers may get wetter
- droughts are expected to get longer and more severe, with less regular rainfall and higher temperatures drying the land out faster
- sea levels are expected to rise by at least 20cms by 2050 and up to 70cms by the end of this century, bringing more coastal flooding, storm surges, and groundwater contamination.
Read a more detailed summary in Northland's Future Climate (PDF 551KB)
While climate change will alter our physical environment in these and other ways, the consequences of those changes will affect our communities, cultural taonga and natural ecosystems. Here’s how climate change could change our lives, in a bit more detail.
- Rising average temperatures, summer heatwaves and air pollution levels will affect human health. People with chronic respiratory conditions, the elderly and other vulnerable populations are particularly at risk.
- More droughts, floods and storms – which Northland experienced particularly harshly in 2020 – create significant economic and social issues for communities and whānau.
- Rising sea levels affect coastal settlements, of which Te Taitokerau has many, and increase the risk of coastal hazards and erosion.
- We have heard from Māori that climate change impacts have the potential to create an existential threat to their cultural taonga and values.
- More severe weather could lead to homes and infrastructure being damaged and a higher risk of communities being cut off by floodwaters or slips.
- As sea levels rise, coastal communities will experience more flooding and storm surges. For some coastal communities, saltwater could contaminate groundwater supplies, reducing the amount of freshwater available.
- Climate change will affect what and how much we can grow and farm in Northland, due to higher temperatures, dry spells and unpredictable weather.
- More frequent droughts will limit pasture and animal production, and increase the risk of fires. Reductions in rainfall and river flow, as well as sea-level rise, may reduce groundwater storage.
- Intense storms and rainfall events will happen more often, causing damage to land and crops.
- More heat-tolerant pests may become established here, affecting Northland’s primary industries.
- There are also some potential opportunities, such as the ability to grow new crops.
- Lower levels of groundwater in aquifers and lower flows in rivers.
- A high risk that salt water will enter coastal aquifers due to sea level rise.
- Heavy rain events could cause more soil erosion, increasing sediment in our waterways.
- Climate change can alter the spread of existing pests, and create the potential for new pests (especially plants, insects and marine pests) to gain a foothold in Te Taitokerau.
- It could also have detrimental effects on our native plants and animals, potentially causing localised extinctions.
- Warming seas, marine heatwaves, and ocean acidification could disrupt marine ecosystems, changing the types and timing of seafood available.
Shifting to a net-zero emissions society
The scale of change required to limit dangerous global warming will require significant shifts in the energy we use, how and where we plan our communities, and how we operate businesses. The economic, cultural and societal upheavals of such a shift will have consequences for Northlanders – particularly for Māori, rural landowners, farmers, manufacturers, and those with limited financial resources.
Council is committed to working with organisations and communities to help reduce emissions, and support an equitable transition to a net-zero emissions society.